Abstract
Achieving a blue economy will require reconciling the value of emerging ocean uses with their impacts on the seascape and sectors with historical access to marine resources and areas. To meet this challenge, we developed an analytical framework for conducting marine spatial planning through tradeoff analysis, and applied it to prospective offshore wind energy development in the ∼974 km2 Morro Bay, California, USA Wind Energy Area (WEA). We generated spatial data layers estimating MW power production and impacts on fisheries value and marine wildlife conservation (seabird and cetacean populations) from wind farm development. We then quantified each sector’s response to plans of development across the WEA and inside three leases recently acquired by the energy industry for prospective development. Finally, we integrated the sector response data into an analytical framework for mitigating sector tradeoffs with novel spatial planning solutions (maps of wind farm size, location, and configuration) that optimally maximize value to the emergent energy sector (MW power) while minimizing impacts to historical (fisheries and wildlife) sectors. We found that western sites in the WEA had the highest potential power production concurrent with the lowest impact on the historical sectors, revealing the eastern lease to be less efficient at optimally balancing the sector’s objectives relative to the development of the central or western leases or the optimal spatial plans identified in the tradeoff analysis. Within a lease, tradeoff analysis found spatial planning able to generate out-sized savings in fisheries value with only modest losses in MW power – for example, by avoiding development in just 5% of the eastern lease to preserve nearly half its fisheries value and still generate 95% its total power potential. Small-scale development opportunities (e.g., a pilot project) with significant power potential and no fisheries impact were also identified, in this case by placing turbines in an area in the western lease with no fisheries value and high power production potential. These plans would also have a relatively low impact on the wildlife conservation sectors, due to decreases in vulnerability levels of both seabird and cetacean populations to turbines going from east to west across the WEA. Our results can inform site evaluation and permitting processes for wind energy development in the Morro Bay WEA. We also expect the tradeoff analysis framework we developed to provide a simple and actionable analytical tool for supporting marine spatial planning of offshore wind energy and other emerging blue economy activities from a balanced perspective that values emerging uses of marine resources alongside existing socio-economic and conservation interests.